Malzeme Kuznets Eğrisi Hipotezi Geçerli mi? CIVETS Ülkelerinden Ampirik Kanıtlar
Öz
Ekonomik büyüme ile çevresel bozulma ilişkisi literatürde genellikle Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi (EKC) hipotezi ile araştırılırken son yıllarda malzeme kullanımını merkezine alan Malzeme Kuznets Eğrisi (MKC) hipotezine dayalı çalışmalara da ilginin arttığı görülmektedir. Bu ilginin odağındaki temel gerekçe çevresel bozulmayı ölçmede malzeme kullanımının CO2 emisyonlarına kıyasla daha kapsamlı veri içermesidir. EKC hipotezinden türetilen MKC hipotezi de ekonomik büyüme ile çevresel bozulma arasındaki ilişkinin kuadratik formda olduğunu ve ekonomik büyüme ile malzeme kullanımı arasında önce pozitif daha sonra ise negatif yönlü bir ilişkinin bulunduğunu ileri sürmektedir. Bu çalışmada son yıllarda büyüme performanslarıyla gelişen piyasalar olarak öne çıkan CIVETS ülkelerinde MKC hipotezinin geçerliliğinin test edilmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Bu amaçla diğer çalışmalardan farklı olarak malzeme kullanımını temsilen malzeme ayak izi değişkeni kullanılmıştır. 1975-2019 dönemi için panel eşbütünleşme analizinin gerçekleştirildiği çalışmada elde edilen bulgulara göre i) panel için MKC hipotezi geçerlidir; ii) ülkeler bazında Kolombiya haricinde Endonezya, Güney Afrika, Mısır, Türkiye ve Vietnam’da MKC hipotezi geçerlidir. Ayrıca çalışmada malzeme ayak izini maksimum yapan kişi başı gelir düzeyleri de hesaplanmıştır.
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