ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
Energy is one of the most important fundamental inputs of the economy and social life. Globally; increasing population, economic growth, urbanization, and technological developments have been increasing energy needs of countries. However, the fact that the fossil fuels such as oil, coal and natural gas is limited and rising energy prices led countries to find alternative sources of energy. The country’s energy dependency is increasing day to day. Relationship between energy and economic growth for developed and developing countries is a hotly debated topic. Especially for developing countries requires more energy to achieve economic growth. In term of Turkey which is particularly dependent on foreign energy is important to determine the direction of the relationship. The ampiric literature related with causality between energy consumption and economic growth show different results according to periods and methods used. In some studies a uni-directional causality is found running from energy consumption to economic growth and in some studies a uni-directional causality is found running from economic growth to energy consumption. While some results indicate no causality between variables, the others indicate bi-directional causality.
The aim of this study is to examine relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Turkey during the period 1970-2009. Real GDP per capita and electricity per capita variables are used. Firstly, NG Perron and Phillips Perron unit root tests are used to verify the order of integration of the variables. Johansen cointegration test and vector error correction model are employed to examine the relationship. All variables are found stationary in the first difference. According to Johansen cointegration test it is concluded that there is long run cointegration between variables.The results indicate that there is a cointegration vector between the real GDP and the electricity consumption in the long- run. Both short and long-run uni-directional causality from real GDP to electricity consumption is observed. Besides, according to Toda Yamamoto Granger Causality test there is found uni-directional causality from real GDP to electricity consumption. This results can be interpreted as advancement of the countries’ economy, there has been increase in energy consumption, particulary in electricity consumption. Due to high income, consumers consume more and more electricity. According to the findings obtained from this study, energy conservation policies may be applied in order to reduce energy consumption in Turkey. The uni-directional causality running from economic growth to energy consumption implies that energy conservation policies may not unfavourable effects on economic growth.
Akpolat, A.,& Altıntaş, N. (2013). “Enerji Tüketimi ile Reel GSYİH Arasındaki Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik İlişkisi: 1961-2010 Dönemi”, Bilgi Ekonomisi ve Yönetimi Dergisi, 8(2), pp.15-127.
Shiu, A., & Lam, P. (2004). “Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in China”, Energy Policy, 32, pp.47-54.
Altınay, G., & Karagöl, E. (2004). “Structural Break, Unit Root, and The Causality Between Energy Consumption and GDP in Turkey” , Energy Economics, 26, pp.985-994.
Altınay, G., & Karagöl, E. (2005). “Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey”, Energy Economics, 27, pp.849-856.
Asufe-Adjaye, J. (2000). “The Relationship Between Energy Consumption, Energy Prices and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence From Asian Developing Countrie”, Energy Economics, 22, pp.615-625.
Bayar, Y. (2014). “Türkiye’de Birincil Enerji Kullanımı ve Ekonomik Büyüme”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 28(2), pp.253-269.
Çetin, M., & Şeker, F. (2012). “Enerji Tüketiminin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 31(1), pp.85-106
Engle, R. F.,& Granger, C.W. (1987). “Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica, 55(2), pp.251-276
Erdal, G., Erdal, H., Esengün, K. (2008). “The Causality Between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey”, Energy Policy, 36, pp.3838-3842.
Ghosh, S. (2002). “Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in India”, Energy Policy, 30, pp. 125-129.
Glasure, Y. U. (2002). “ Energy and National Income in Korea: Further Evidence on the Role of Omitted Variables”, Energy Economics, 24, pp.355-365.
Hondroyiannis, G., Lolos, S., Papapetrou, E. (2002).” Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Assessing The Evidence From Greece”, Energy Economics, 24, pp.319-336.
Jobert, T., & Karanfil F. (2007). “Sectoral Energy Consumption by Source and Economic Growth in Turkey”, Energy Policy, 35, pp.5447-5456.
Johansen, S. (1988). “Statitical Analysis of Cointegration Vector”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), pp.231-254.
Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economic and Statistics, 52, pp.169-210.
Karagöl, E., Erbaykal, E., Ertuğrul, H.M. (2007). “Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme ile Elektrik Tüketimi İlişkisi: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı”, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, (1), pp.72-80.
Kraft, J.,& Kraft, A. (1978). “On the Relationship Between Energy and GNP”, Journal of Energy and Development, 16, pp.267-285.
Lise, W., & Montfort, K.V. (2007). “Energy Consumption and GDP in Turkey: Is There a Cointegration Relationship?”, Energy Economics, 29, pp.1166-1178.
Masih, A.M.M., & Masih, R. (1996). “Energy Consumption, Real Income and Temporal Causality: Result From A Multi-country Study Based on Cointegration and Error-Correction Modeling Techniques”, Energy Economics, 18, pp.165-183.
Ng, S.,& Perron, P. (2001). “Lag Lenght Selection and Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power”, Econometrica, 69, pp.1529-1554.
Oh, W., & Lee, K. (2004). “Causal Relationship Between Energy Consumption and GDP Revisited: The Case of Korea 1970-1999”, Energy Economics, 26, pp.51-59.
Özata, E. (2010). “Türkiye’de Enerji Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkilerin Ekonometrik İncelemesi”, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 26, pp.101-113
Phillips, P.C, & Perron, P. (1988). “Testing For a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrica, 75, pp.335-346.
Sarı, R.,& Soytaş, U. (2004). “Disaggregate Energy Consumption, Employment and Income in Turkey”, Energy Economics, 26, pp.335-344.
Soytaş, U., Sarı, R., Özdemir, Ö. (2001). “Energy Consumption and GDP Relation in Turkey: A Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Analysis”, Economies and Busimess in Transition: Facilitating Competitiveness and Change in the Global Environment Proceedings, pp.838-844.
Soytaş, U.,& Sarı, R. (2003). “Energy Consumption and GDP: Causality Relationship in G-7 Countries and Emerging Markets”, Energy Economics, 25, pp.33.-37.
Stern, I.D. (2000). “A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of The Role of Energy in the US Macroeconomy”, Energy Economics, 22, pp.267-283.
Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, Y. (1995). “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregression with Possibly Integrated Processes”, Journal of Econometrics, 66, pp.225-250.
Uzunöz, M.,& Akçay, Y. (2012). “Türkiye’de Büyüme ve Enerji Tüketimi Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: 1970-2010”, Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 3(2), pp.1-16.
Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2004). “Disaggregated Industrial Energy Consumption and GDP: The Case of Shanghai, 1952-1999”, Energy Economics, 26, pp.69-75.
Yang, H. (2000). “A Note On The Causal Relationship Between Energy and Gdp in Taiwan”, Energy Economics, 22, pp.309-317.
Yoo, S. (2005). “Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Korea”, Energy Policy, 33, pp.1627-1632.
Yoo, S. (2006). “The Causal Relationship Between Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in The ASEAN Countries”, Energy Policy, 34, pp.3573-3582.
Yu, E.S.,& Hwang, B. (1984). “The Relationship Between Energy and GNP”, Energy Economics, pp.186-190.
Yu, E.S.H., & Jin, J.C. (1992). “Cointegration Test of Energy Consumption, Income, and Employment”, Resources and Energy, 14, pp.259-266.
Zachariadus, T.,& Pashourtidou, N. (2007). “An Empirical Analysis of Electricity Consumption in Cyprus”, Energy Economics, 29, pp.183-198.
- Şu halde refbacks yoktur.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.